VCM Daily Trading Lessons

The Most Overlooked Topic – Share Sizing, Part 3 of 3

Today's Quote: “It all depends on how we look at things, and not on how they are themselves." - Carl Gustav Jung.

Here is a final comment to keep in mind to help drive home the importance of share sizing. Believe it or not you can have a winning game plan, have the vast majority of your trades the winners, and still lose money. As a matter of fact tests have been done show this is the natural inclination of most human beings.

In a sample situation 42 highly educated adults were given the opportunity to participate in a game. This game involved dropping coins into a slot machine that was rigged to produce a winner 60% of time. Every participant was given the same number of coins and any one who would have simply dropped one coin at a time would be ‘guaranteed’ to be a winner by the end of the day. The contest was to see who could win the most money. This was done by giving the participants the opportunity to drop more than one coin at a time if they chose to. That is to say, they were allowed to increase their bet on any single pull of the handle with no limit other than their starting number of coins.

Results? 40 people lost all of their money and the two who had money remaining had less money than they started the game with. In other words, in a game where participants were guaranteed to walk home a winner, their own greed turned them all into losers. What was the mistake that virtually everyone made? They all felt that after a certain number of “losers” that they should increase their bet dramatically because a “winner" had to be coming.

Perhaps many of you see this very close correlation to what may be happening in your own trading. If so then our job is done here.